Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~93.7% vs our estimate ~92% (no value)
• • Underdog odds require Kouzmine to have >7.62% true chance to be profitable, which we do not support

Pros

• + James Story's superior career win-rate and surface experience point to a clear favorite
• + Market correctly identifies the mismatch; downside for bettors backing the favorite at short odds is minimal but not value-positive

Cons

• - Current home price (1.066) is shorter than our fair odds — negative expected value
• - Lack of specific H2H, injury, or contextual information to justify backing the underdog at 13.12

Details

We compare the market price (James Story 1.066 implied ~93.7%) to our estimate of the true win probability. James Story's career record (31-23) and surface experience on hard/carpeting favour him against Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine (21-28) and his mixed clay/hard profile, so we estimate a high true probability (~92%). That estimate is below the implied market probability (92% < 93.7%), so the short home price offers negative expected value. The away price (13.12) would be profitable only if Kouzmine's true upset chance exceeded ~7.62%; based on both players' recent results and no H2H or injury information, we view Kouzmine's upset probability as below a reliable edge. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home win probability ~93.7% (1/1.066) is slightly higher than our estimated true probability
• • James Story has the stronger overall record and history on hard/carpet surfaces compared with Kouzmine
• • Both players show recent losses and there is no H2H or injury information that creates exploitable value