Highlights

• • Market implies 92.6% for James; we estimate 95%
• • Value is marginal but positive given supplied data

Pros

• + Clear experience and match-volume advantage for James
• + Surface profile favors James while Ferdinand appears clay-specialist with poor results

Cons

• - EV is small (≈2.6%) — outcome variance in challenger/ITF-level tennis can erase gains
• - No head-to-head or match-day condition details provided; uncertainty remains

Details

We compare the quoted moneyline (Home 1.08 => implied win probability 92.6%) to our assessment from the provided records. James Story has a substantially larger match sample (54 matches, 31-23) and experience on hard/grass/carpet surfaces, while Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka has a very small sample (8 matches, 2-6) and appears to have played only on clay. Recent results in the research show James competing at M25 level and Ferdinand struggling at lower-level clay events. There are no injury notes or H2H data supplied. Given the experience, surface breadth, and better win record, we estimate James's true win probability at 95%. At the current decimal price of 1.08 this produces positive expected value: EV = 0.95 * 1.08 - 1 = 0.026 (2.6% ROI). The market is implying ~92.6%, so we believe the book slightly underestimates James's chance and the price offers marginal value. We remain conservative because the EV is small and lower-level tennis can produce volatility; lack of head-to-head and match-day conditions are additional uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: James 54 matches vs Ferdinand 8 matches
• • Surface compatibility: James has results on hard/grass/carpet; Ferdinand's matches documented only on clay
• • Recent form and win rates favor James (31-23 vs 2-6)