James Story vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Highlights

• • Market is heavily favoring James (1.311 implied 76.3%)
• • Relative career records and surface overlap suggest a much closer matchup

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (3.21)
• + Conservative probability estimate still leaves significant edge

Cons

• - Limited data and no H2H available increases uncertainty
• - Favorite's market price may reflect information not in the provided dataset (e.g., recent practice/injury)

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Home implied 1/1.311 = 76.3%, Away implied 1/3.21 = 31.1%) to our assessment from the available player data. Both players have experience on hard/carpets and similar-level records (James Story 31-23 ≈ 57.4% career win rate; Yanis Ghazouani Durand 17-17 = 50.0%). A simple relative-strength conversion of those win rates produces a much closer head-to-head expectation (roughly 53.5% home / 46.5% away), indicating the market is heavily overstating the favorite. Given surface overlap, comparable recent results, and small sample sizes, we conservatively estimate Yanis's true win probability at 40.0%. At the current away price (3.21) that yields positive expected value (EV = 0.40 * 3.21 - 1 = 0.284). We therefore recommend the away (Yanis) only because the market’s implied 31.1% is well below our conservative 40% estimate, leaving room for substantial value. Odds used for EV calculation: 3.21 (current moneyline).

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (76.3%) appears overstated versus career-win-rate parity
• • Both players have demonstrated competence on hard/carpets — surface neutralizes a large edge
• • Sample sizes and recent form are mixed, so we apply a conservative true-probability estimate for the underdog