Highlights

• • Market implies ~84.8% for Trotter; our estimate is ~78%
• • Price needs to be ≥1.282 to be +EV for Trotter

Pros

• + Home player has grass experience and better overall win rate
• + Away player has weaker career record and no grass history in the provided data

Cons

• - Trotter's recent match list shows losses at higher-level events, introducing some form uncertainty
• - Qualifying matches can produce upsets and the available price leaves no margin for error

Details

We estimate James Trotter is the clear favorite based on career win-rate (36-26) and recorded grass experience, while Strong Kirchheimer has a poorer record (23-37) and no recorded grass matches in the provided data. However, the market price for Trotter (1.179, implied 84.8%) is too short relative to our assessed win chance. Using a conservative true probability of 78% for Trotter (reflecting surface edge, overall form and head-to-head uncertainty), the fair decimal price would be ~1.282. That makes any wager at 1.179 negative expected value (EV = 0.78 * 1.179 - 1 ≈ -0.080), so we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Trotter has a stronger overall record and listed grass experience
• • Kirchheimer's record is markedly weaker and shows no grass matches in the provided data
• • Market-implied probability (≈84.8%) is higher than our estimated true probability (78%), leaving no value