Highlights

• • Market implies home win prob ~82.6%; available data doesn't support that level of confidence
• • Strong's form and record lead us to estimate ~18% true win probability (below the 25% break-even at 4.0)

Pros

• + Strong has Challenger-level match experience and has played on hard courts before
• + Career win-rate (38.3%) indicates he can win matches at this level under some conditions

Cons

• - Recent results shown are losses and indicate poor form
• - Current away odds (4.0) do not offer sufficient value relative to our estimated probability

Details

We compare the market prices to our estimate for Strong Kirchheimer based only on the provided research. The market implies James Kent Trotter (home) has ~82.6% win probability (1/1.21) and Strong (away) 25.0% (1/4.0). The only quantitative data available pertains to Strong: a 23-37 career record (23/60 = 38.3% career win-rate) and recent losses on hard courts, with surfaces played including hard. Given Strong's losing recent form and the fact the market has installed a very strong favorite, we conservatively reduce Strong's true win probability well below his career average to account for opponent strength and form concerns. We estimate Strong's true probability at 18%. At the current away price (4.0) EV = 0.18 * 4.0 - 1 = -0.28, which is negative. To back the favorite (home) we would need to believe James Kent Trotter's win probability exceeds 82.6%, which we cannot justify from the available research. Therefore there is no value on either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Strong Kirchheimer career record 23-37 (38.3% win rate) but recent losses on hard
• • Market implies heavy favoritism to home (1.21 = ~82.6%); we cannot justify >82.6% for the favorite with available data
• • Given form and opponent-strength inference, Strong's true probability is likely below the 25% needed for value at 4.0