James Lorenzetti vs Nathan Gold
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We identify a small value on the away player (Nathan Gold) at 1.66 based on a conservative true probability estimate of 61.0%, yielding ~1.3% ROI — a modest, higher-uncertainty value bet.
Highlights
- • Away price 1.66 vs our min required 1.639 — small positive edge
- • Recommendation is conservative due to complete lack of supplemental match data
Pros
- + Current market price offers a measurable, if small, positive expected value
- + Clear numerical rationale: our estimated probability exceeds market-implied probability after adjusting for vig
Cons
- - Very limited information (no form, surface, injury, or H2H data) increases model uncertainty
- - Edge is small (≈1.3% ROI); variance could easily overwhelm expected gain
Details
We have no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data, so we take a conservative view of the market prices. The away moneyline (Nathan Gold) is 1.66, implying a market win probability of ~60.2%. After accounting for the bookmaker margin and uncertainty, we estimate Nathan Gold's true win probability at 61.0%, which is slightly higher than the market-implied probability and creates a small positive edge. EV = 0.61 * 1.66 - 1 = 0.0126 (about 1.26% ROI). Given limited information, this is a modest value bet rather than a strong overlay — we recommend betting the away player only because the current price is above our minimum required decimal odds (1.639).
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for away is ~60.2%; our conservative estimate is 61.0% giving a small edge
- • No supplemental data on surface, form, injuries or H2H — increases uncertainty and argues for a conservative estimate
- • Bookmaker margin (overround) reduces fairness of raw implied odds; we adjusted conservatively to mitigate vig