Highlights

• • Beauge's clay experience creates a potential matchup edge
• • Current away odds 3.24 offer ~23% ROI by our estimate

Pros

• + Clear surface-profile edge favoring Beauge in the Research
• + Underdog price (3.24) well above our min-required odds (2.632) for positive EV

Cons

• - Research lacks explicit confirmation of match surface, H2H, and injury status
• - Market strongly favors Story; heavy favorite upsets are still possible, increasing variance

Details

We find value on Maxence Beauge (away). The market strongly favors James Story at 1.305 (implied ~76.6%) despite Research indicating Story's documented surfaces are Grass/Carpet/Hard with no clay listed, while Beauge's profile explicitly includes clay. This suggests a surface/comfort advantage for Beauge if the event is on clay (typical for Bagneres De Bigorre), which the raw records alone (Story 31-23, Beauge 27-25) do not reflect. Given similar overall records and mixed recent form for both, we assign Beauge a substantially higher true win probability than the market does for an underdog. At our estimated true probability (0.38) the current away price 3.24 produces positive expected value (EV = 0.38*3.24 - 1 = 0.231). We do note uncertainty from incomplete match-level info (no confirmed surface, H2H, or injury reports in the provided Research), so our estimate is conservative to account for that uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Surface profile: Beauge has clay experience in his documented surfaces; Story's listed surfaces do not include clay
• • Market skew: Bookmakers price Story heavily as favorite (1.305) implying ~76.6% — we view this as overstated given surface mismatch
• • Comparable records and mixed recent form for both players; no injury/H2H data in Research increases model uncertainty