James Watt vs Aleksandre Bakshi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market price for Watt (1.05) appears unrealistically high relative to the provided player records; backing Bakshi at 10.0 offers significant value based on a 52% estimated win probability.
Highlights
- • Market implies Bakshi only 10% but career data suggest ~52% chance
- • At 10.0 the calculated EV is very large (EV = 4.20)
Pros
- + Large positive expected value at the quoted price
- + Assessment grounded in provided career win-rate and surface overlap
Cons
- - Huge market discrepancy could reflect unreported info (injury, withdrawal risk, or line error) not present in the research
- - Both players show poor recent form, adding variance and uncertainty to the estimate
Details
We see a large market skew: the current moneyline implies James Watt has ~95.2% win probability (1/1.05) and Aleksandre Bakshi ~10.0% (1/10.0), with an overround of ~5.24%. That market split conflicts with the available player data: Watt's career record in the provided research is 21-28 (21/49 = 42.9% career win rate) while Bakshi's is 27-26 (27/53 = 51.0% career win rate). Both have recent losses and have experience on hard courts, but Bakshi edges Watt on raw career win-rate and plays mainly hard/clay similar to this fixture, so we assign Bakshi a materially higher true probability than the market's 10%. Using a conservative, evidence-based estimated true probability of 52% for Bakshi (reflecting his slightly better career win rate and surface match-up), the current away price of 10.0 represents substantial value. EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.52 * 10.0 - 1 = 4.20 (420% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Even allowing for uncertainty, the market price would need to be below ~1.923 for this to be a breakeven (min_required_decimal_odds = 1/p = 1.923). Given the stark disconnect between implied market probability and what the profiles suggest, we recommend backing the away player at the quoted 10.0 price.
Key factors
- • Career win rates favor Bakshi (Bakshi ~51.0% vs Watt ~42.9%)
- • Both players have hard-court experience; no clear surface advantage to Watt in provided data
- • Market heavily overweights Watt (implied ~95%), creating a large apparent value opportunity on Bakshi
- • Recent form for both shows struggles, so pick is driven primarily by career-level edge and price inefficiency