Jan Choinski vs Vitaliy Sachko
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value backing Vitaliy Sachko at 1.88 based on a higher career win rate and neutral surface factors; the edge is modest (≈3.4% ROI) and subject to uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability: ~53.2% at 1.88
- • Our estimated Sachko win probability: 55.0% → slight value
Pros
- + Sachko has a notably better overall win record in the provided data
- + Both players are familiar with clay — no strong surface advantage for Choinski
Cons
- - Edge is small and within margin of estimation error
- - Recent form snippets are mixed for both players and no H2H or injury data provided
Details
We view Vitaliy Sachko as the marginally more likely winner. The market is pricing this as an even matchup (both sides 1.88, implied probability ~53.2%). From the provided player records Sachko has a stronger overall win rate (46-31, ~59.7%) versus Choinski (31-28, ~52.5%), and both have recent Challenger clay activity, so surface familiarity is neutral. Given Sachko's higher career win percentage and deeper match volume, we estimate his true win probability at 55.0%, which exceeds the market-implied ~53.2%. At the current decimal price of 1.88 this yields a small positive edge (EV = 0.55*1.88 - 1 = 0.034). The value is modest and comes with uncertainty because recent form snapshots provided are mixed for both players and there is no head-to-head or injury information to materially shift the price.
Key factors
- • Sachko's higher overall win-rate and larger match sample (46-31 vs 31-28)
- • Both players show recent Challenger clay activity — surface is neutral
- • Market is even (1.88/1.88) but implied probability (~53.2%) is below our estimate for Sachko