Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for the favorite is ~98.23%
• • Our conservative true probability estimate is 90%, producing EV ≈ -8.4% at the current price

Pros

• + Clear numeric mismatch: current odds require near-absolute certainty to be profitable
• + Research contains minimal match-specific unknowns, arguing for conservative probability estimates

Cons

• - Limited research data prevents confidently identifying rare edge scenarios
• - If factual details (injury/withdrawal) not captured here materially favor the favorite, our estimate could be off

Details

The market prices Joel Josef Schwaerzler at 1.018 (implied ~98.23%) and Jan Choinski at 46.11 (implied ~2.17%). To be profitable at the current favorite price requires a true win probability >98.226% — an implausibly extreme certainty given only the surface (grass) and no match-specific form, injury, or H2H details in the research. We estimate Schwaerzler's true win probability at 90% to reflect a strong favorite on grass but to allow for normal match variance, potential late withdrawals, and limited public data. At that estimate the expected ROI on the 1.018 price is negative (≈ -8.4%), so there is no value to back the favorite. The min decimal odds that would make backing Schwaerzler profitable given our probability is 1.111; current market odds are far shorter, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Extremely short market price for the away favorite (1.018) requires >98.226% true probability to be profitable
• • Only surface (grass) available from research; no reliable form, injury, or H2H data provided
• • Small margins and potential for last-minute match events (withdrawal/injury) make sub-1.05 prices fragile