Highlights

• • Sachko’s career win rate is notably higher than Choinski’s
• • Away price (2.40) exceeds our fair odds (2.273), creating positive EV

Pros

• + Quantified positive EV at current market price
• + Assessment grounded in provided career records and recent form

Cons

• - Research is limited (no H2H, venue surface specifics or injury detail)
• - Edge is modest (~5.6% ROI) and sensitive to probability estimate

Details

The market prices Jan Choinski as a clear favorite at 1.55 (implied 64.5%) while Vitaliy Sachko is available at 2.40 (implied 41.7%). Our assessment, based on the provided career records and recent form snippets, views Sachko as the stronger player overall: he has a higher career win rate (46-31, ~59.7% vs Choinski 31-28, ~52.5%) and more match experience. There is no research evidence of injuries or a surface-specific advantage for Choinski that would justify the market’s large gap. We estimate Sachko’s true win probability at 44.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of 2.273. At the quoted 2.40 there is positive expected value (EV = 0.44*2.40 - 1 = +0.056, or +5.6% ROI). We therefore recommend the away moneyline only because the current price offers value versus our estimated probability.

Key factors

• • Sachko has a stronger career win rate (46-31 vs 31-28)
• • Market overprices Choinski (implied home win 64.5%) relative to available evidence
• • No injury or surface edge reported in the provided research to justify market gap