Jana Kolodynska vs Yuhan Wang
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected — both players look evenly matched in the provided data and current odds are below the required 2.00 decimal to produce positive EV at a 50% true probability.
Highlights
- • Market implies away is slightly favored (1.82 → 54.9% implied)
- • Required odds for a value play at our 50% estimate is 2.00; current prices are shorter
Pros
- + Market is efficient and tight, reflecting lack of a clear edge
- + Avoids taking negative-EV action when no informational advantage exists
Cons
- - Limited Research prevents nuanced probabilistic edges that could exist off-page
- - If unpublished factors (injury, travel, matchup specifics) exist, our neutral estimate may miss value
Details
We see virtually no informational edge in the Research: both players have identical recorded career spans and win/loss summaries, similar recent form snippets, and no H2H or surface advantage is provided. Market prices are tight (Home 1.877, Away 1.82) and imply probabilities of ~53.3% and ~54.9% respectively. Based on the available data we estimate the true win probability for either player at 50.0% (an even matchup). At that true probability the break-even decimal price is 2.000; current prices (best available 1.82) produce a negative expected value (EV = 0.5 * 1.82 - 1 = -0.09, -9% ROI). Because no side offers positive EV versus our estimate, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Research shows near-identical career records and limited differentiating form
- • Market odds are tight and imply a slight edge to the away player but not beyond our 50% neutral estimate
- • No H2H, injury, or surface advantage data in the Research to justify deviating from a 50/50 model