Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability (1/2.15 ≈ 46.5%) is below our estimate (55%)
• • Positive expected value of ≈18% at the current away price

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge vs market price based on Jana's documented poor form
• + Decent upside: current odds (2.15) are well above our min-required odds (1.818)

Cons

• - Very limited and one-sided research (only Jana's profile provided); no direct data on Annika Kannan
• - High uncertainty — market may have information we don't see, so outcome variance is high

Details

We observe a market that has Jana Vanik as the favorite (home 1.64 -> implied ~61.0%), but Jana's available match data shows a short career (31 matches) with a 10-21 record (career win rate ~32%) and clear recent struggles on both clay and hard. Given the lack of any positive form signal for Jana and no contradicting public data on Annika Kannan in the provided research, we conservatively estimate Annika's true win probability materially above the market-implied 46.5% for the away price of 2.15. Using our estimated true probability (55%), the expected value at the current away price is positive: EV = 0.55 * 2.15 - 1 = 0.183 (18.3% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the away player only because the market price (2.15) offers demonstrable value versus our assessment. We flag high uncertainty due to limited information on Annika and one-sided available data for Jana.

Key factors

• • Jana Vanik's career win rate is low (10/31 ≈ 32%) with recent losses on clay and hard
• • Market currently prices Jana as ~61% favorite (home 1.64), which conflicts with Jana's documented form
• • Away price 2.15 implies ~46.5% chance — below our conservative estimate of Annika's true win probability
• • Information on Annika Kannan was not provided, increasing model uncertainty and necessitating conservative probability assumptions