Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~91.7% vs our estimate ~60%
• • Fair decimal needed for break-even on our estimate is ~1.667 — well above the current 1.09

Pros

• + We rely on the provided player stats showing parity to avoid overrating the favorite
• + Clear quantitative comparison between implied market odds and our estimated probability

Cons

• - Limited data in the research (sparse match-level context) increases uncertainty
• - Absence of detailed surface, seedings or head-to-head data means small edges could be unobserved

Details

We see the market has priced Jana Vanik extremely short at 1.09 (implied ~91.7%). The available player profiles show both Jana Vanik and Soumeya Anane with essentially identical career records (10-21 across 31 matches) and similar recent form, with no reported injuries or surface advantage in the provided data. Given the parity in records and lack of confirmatory edge, we estimate Jana Vanik's true win probability at ~60%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.667, meaning the current 1.09 offers a large negative expected value. The away price of 7.0 implies ~14.3% and would require a true probability >14.3% to be profitable; while Soumeya may have some outsider chance, the provided information does not justify that large an undervaluation. Therefore no value exists at current market prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form in the provided data
• • No injuries, surface or head-to-head edge documented in the supplied research to justify a >90% market probability
• • Current market price (1.09) implies a win probability far above what the available data supports