Jana Kolodynska vs Fangzhou Liu
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the home player Jana Kolodynska at 2.67 — the market underestimates her win chances versus our 45% estimate, producing ~20% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Book-implied probability for Jana: ~37.5% vs our estimate 45%
- • Fair decimal odds given our probability: ~2.22 — market offers 2.67
Pros
- + Clear value gap between market price and our probability estimate
- + Players' records and recent form suggest a closer matchup than the odds imply
Cons
- - Both players show poor recent form overall, introducing volatility
- - Limited additional contextual data (H2H, injuries, exact surface conditions) increases model uncertainty
Details
We see a clear pricing gap: the market prices Jana Kolodynska at 2.67 (implied win probability 37.45%) while her profile and Fangzhou Liu's profile show nearly identical career records (both 10-21) and similar recent form on clay/hard. Both players have multiple recent losses at Challenger-level events and comparable serving stats in the recent matches listed, so a large 30+ percentage point market edge to Liu is not supported by the available performance data. Given parity in career record, surface exposure and recent results, we estimate Jana's true win probability around 45%. That implies value on Jana at 2.67 because the fair threshold for a positive expectation is ~2.22 decimal (1/0.45). At the quoted price Jana offers positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 2.67 - 1 ≈ 0.20), while backing Liu at 1.429 would be a negative expectation unless her true win chance were ≳70%, which the data does not support.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent results, indicating parity
- • Market heavily favors Liu (implied 37.45% for Jana) creating a pricing discrepancy
- • Recent match-level stats show similar serve performance and losses at Challenger events