Highlights

• • Home (Otzipka) estimated true probability: 40%; needed odds ≥ 2.50 for breakeven
• • Current home odds 2.74 produce EV ≈ +0.096 (9.6% ROI) under our conservative model

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at available market price for the home underdog
• + Conservative probability estimate reduces risk of overestimating value

Cons

• - No match-specific information (form, injuries, surface, H2H) increases uncertainty
• - ITF-level matches are higher variance; outcomes can be more unpredictable

Details

We received no external match-specific data, so we proceed conservatively. The market currently prices Anastasia Tikhonova as a clear favorite at 1.459 (implied win probability ~68.5%) and Jana Otzipka at 2.74 (implied ~36.5%). Given the lack of injury, form, surface, or H2H information, and the higher variance typical of ITF events, we avoid trusting the market's short favorite price fully. We estimate a more balanced true probability of 40.0% for Otzipka and 60.0% for Tikhonova. At Otzipka 2.74 this yields positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 2.74 - 1 = +0.096 (≈9.6% ROI). The favorite at 1.459 offers negative EV under our estimate (0.60 * 1.459 - 1 = -0.125). Therefore we recommend backing the home underdog (Jana Otzipka) because current decimal odds exceed our minimum fair odds threshold (2.50).

Key factors

• • No match-specific data available — we apply conservative assumptions and higher variance for ITF events
• • Market-implied probabilities: Away 68.5% vs Home 36.5%; we adjust toward a more balanced split due to uncertainty
• • Current home odds (2.74) exceed our fair threshold (2.50), creating positive EV under our estimate