Highlights

• • Boulais is the clear market favorite (1.204) but price implies ~83% win chance.
• • Our best estimate (72%) still produces negative EV at the available price.

Pros

• + Boulais' greater match experience and higher-level tournament exposure.
• + Both players' recent form is documented, allowing a conservative probability estimate.

Cons

• - Very limited data on grass performance for both players increases uncertainty.
• - Kim's tiny sample size makes it hard to confidently assign him a >23% win probability required for +EV at 4.31.

Details

We see a heavy market lean to Justin Boulais at decimal 1.204 (implied ~83.1%). Boulais has far more pro matches and experience (41 matches) versus Jangjun Kim's tiny sample (4 matches), and recent form for both is mixed on non-grass surfaces. However, the price for Boulais is so short that even a generous true-win estimate (we estimate Boulais ~72% to win) does not justify backing him at 1.204 (negative EV). Conversely, Kim would need a true win probability >23.2% to be +EV at 4.31; while that is possible, the available data (very small sample for Kim, both players with limited grass evidence) does not provide a confident edge to justify taking Kim at that price. Given the negative EV on the favorite and insufficient evidence for the underdog, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Boulais (41 matches) vs Kim (4 matches)
• • Both players have limited (or no) documented grass performance; surface uncertainty reduces confidence
• • Market strongly favors Boulais (implied ~83%) producing negative EV versus our 72% estimate