Janice Tjen vs Francesca Jones

Highlights

• • Francesca's implied probability (33%) is well below our 45% estimate
• • Fair odds based on our estimate are ~2.22, well below the market 3.01

Pros

• + Significant positive expected value at current prices (+35.5% ROI)
• + No clear form/surface advantage for the favorite to justify market gap

Cons

• - Limited, noisy data sample and few decisive indicators — higher uncertainty
• - If there are unreported factors (fitness, matchup specifics), the value could evaporate

Details

We see both players with virtually identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience, and recent form shows losses for each without a clear edge. The market prices Janice Tjen at 1.426 (implied ~70%) and Francesca Jones at 3.01 (implied ~33%), which overstates the gap given the available performance data. We estimate Francesca's true win probability at 45% because the head-to-head/contextual indicators do not justify a heavy favorite; that implies fair odds of ~2.22. At the available 3.01 on Francesca there is value: our EV = 0.45 * 3.01 - 1 = +0.355 (35.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We therefore recommend backing the away player at current market prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records (10-21) and similar surface profiles — no clear skill gap
• • Recent match results for both are poor without evidence of injury or form tilt favoring the favorite
• • Market pricing heavily favors the home player (implied ~70%), which appears overstated vs. our 45% estimate