Highlights

• • Market implies ~55.96% for Sinner; we estimate 57.0%
• • Positive expected value at current price (EV ≈ +0.019 per 1 unit)

Pros

• + Sinner's extensive match volume and strong win rate on hard courts reduces variance risk
• + Current market price (1.787) is slightly above our fair odds threshold (1.754), creating value

Cons

• - Alcaraz's unbeaten string indicates top-form performance that could invalidate our probability
• - Finals are high-variance; a close match or one big streak by either player can swing the outcome

Details

We view Jannik Sinner as the better-value side given the research: Sinner shows an extensive season sample (53-5) with heavy success on hard courts, while Alcaraz's listed run is unbeaten but from a much smaller sample (11-0). Both players are competing on hard (outdoor), which neutralizes a surface edge; however Sinner's larger volume of recent high-level wins decreases variance and supports a slightly higher true win probability than the market-implied price. The current decimal price for Sinner is 1.787 (implied ~55.96%). We estimate Sinner's true probability at 57.0%, which implies fair odds of 1.754; the sportsbook's 1.787 therefore offers positive expected value. Using the market price 1.787, EV = 0.57*1.787 - 1 = +0.01859 (≈ +1.86% ROI). We are recommending Sinner only because EV > 0 at the quoted price; if prices move below ~1.754 the value disappears.

Key factors

• • Sinner's large-season sample and strong hard-court results (53-5) indicating consistency
• • Alcaraz's unbeaten but much smaller sample (11-0) — good form but higher variance/limited data
• • Both players on outdoor hard: neutral surface, favors baseline consistency and Sinner's proven volume