Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Sinner (≈95.6%) is far above our estimated true probability (86%).
• • Fair decimal for Sinner given our estimate is ~1.163; current 1.046 is too short to be profitable.

Pros

• + Sinner is the stronger player on hard and is a legitimate favorite in a Grand Slam semi-final.
• + Both players' career data and form support a high win probability for Sinner (we estimate ~86%).

Cons

• - Bookmaker price is excessively short (1.046), eliminating any EV for a rational probability estimate.
• - Small inaccuracies in our probability estimate would not overcome the extreme market shortness — downside dominates.

Details

We assess the posted prices (Sinner 1.046, Auger-Aliassime 14.25) versus a realistic win probability. Based on career records, surface (hard), and both players' presence in a Grand Slam semi-final, we estimate Jannik Sinner is a clear favorite but not to the degree implied by a 1.046 price (implied win % ≈ 95.6%). Sinner's career win rate and recent form justify an estimated true probability around 86.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.163, far above the current 1.046. To produce positive expected value on Sinner you would need Sinner's true win likelihood to be >95.6%, which is implausible here; therefore there is no value on either side at the quoted market prices.

Key factors

• • Surface: outdoor hard (neutral to both players; both have extensive hard-court experience)
• • Career performance: Sinner has a higher overall win rate than Auger-Aliassime, supporting favorite status but not near 96%
• • Market price extreme: current decimal 1.046 implies an implausibly high win probability and offers no value