Highlights

• • Sinner is clearly the stronger favorite based on form and surface.
• • Current market price requires Sinner to be >95.98% likely to win to be +EV, which we do not accept.

Pros

• + Sinner's season-long win rate and hard-court form support a very high win probability.
• + Market is heavily tilted to the favorite, reflecting consensus that Sinner should win.

Cons

• - Purchased odds (1.042) do not offer value versus our estimated probability (92%).
• - Auger-Aliassime's quality and experience mean an upset probability materially above zero; the market understates this.

Details

We view the market price for Jannik Sinner (1.042) as overstating his win probability. From the provided data Sinner has been exceptional this season (53-5 overall in the listed span) and is very strong on hard courts, so he is clearly the favorite. However, Felix Auger-Aliassime is an experienced top-level opponent and the quoted decimal 1.042 implies a ~95.98% chance (1/1.042), which is unrealistically high against a top-10 caliber opponent. We estimate Sinner's true win probability at 92.0% based on form and surface, which yields a required fair price of ~1.087. At the current quoted price (odds used for EV = 1.042) the expected value is negative (EV = 0.92 * 1.042 - 1 = -0.04136), so there is no value in backing Sinner at these odds. The longshot (Away) price of 16.06 would be attractive only if we believed Auger-Aliassime's true win probability exceeded ~6.22%, but our model assigns Auger substantially less than what would be required to justify a bet at the favorite's price structure. Therefore we recommend no bet — wait for a materially longer price on Auger or a slightly higher price on Sinner that crosses our breakeven threshold.

Key factors

• • Sinner's dominant recent form (53-5 in the provided span) and strong hard-court performance
• • Market-implied probability (1/1.042 ≈ 95.98%) is implausibly high versus a quality opponent
• • Lack of any evidence in the provided sources of a debilitating injury or absence for Auger-Aliassime that would justify near-certain odds