Highlights

• • Market sets a near-even price (1.87 vs 1.87) despite weak and similar profiles.
• • Required win probability for +EV (≈53.5%) is well above our estimate (35%).

Pros

• + Odds are widely available and symmetric, making overlays easy to detect.
• + Match is on clay where both players have comparable experience, limiting surprise upside for either side.

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent results and limited winning track records—high variance and low predictive confidence.
• - Current prices require a probability well above plausible estimates to be profitable.

Details

We estimate no value on either side at the posted 1.87 moneyline. Both players have weak career records (Opitz 11-26, Chayka 14-27) and both arrive in poor recent form with consecutive losses on clay; there is no clear edge to justify the bookmaker-implied probability of ~53.5% for either player. Using a conservative model driven by career win rates, surface exposure and recent form, we estimate Aleksander Chayka (the slightly stronger profile) has ~35% win probability. At decimal odds 1.87 the required win probability to be profitable is 1/1.87 ≈ 53.476%, far above our estimate, producing a negative expected value. Given symmetric odds and lack of differentiating factors (no H2H advantage, similar clay experience and recent losses), we recommend taking no side at these prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have poor career win rates (Opitz 11-26, Chayka 14-27).
• • Recent form is negative for both — consecutive losses on clay for each player.
• • Book odds (1.87) imply >53% win chance which substantially exceeds our estimated true probability (~35%).