Japan vs Germany
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find slight value backing Japan at 4.36 based on a conservative 25% win probability estimate, producing an EV ≈ 9% on a 1-unit stake; however uncertainty around rosters and venue makes this a higher-risk play.
Highlights
- • Current market implies Japan ~22.9%; we estimate 25.0%
- • Positive EV at current price: ≈+0.09 per unit staked
Pros
- + Price (4.36) provides upside if roster/venue narrow the gap
- + Davis Cup format and doubles can produce upsets and increase variance
Cons
- - No roster/surface/injury details available, increasing model uncertainty
- - Germany is a clear favorite and may field strong players, making upset difficult
Details
We view the market as heavily favoring Germany at 1.214 (≈82.4% implied) which leaves Japan priced at 4.36 (≈22.9% implied). With no roster, surface, or injury specifics available, we apply conservative, event-level reasoning: Davis Cup ties often have roster variability (top players may skip or doubles can swing a tie), and home/venue selection can materially narrow gaps between favorites and underdogs. Taking these factors into account, we estimate Japan's true chance of winning the tie at 25.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 22.9% for the 4.36 price. That produces positive expected value when backing Japan at the current odds. We therefore recommend a value stake on Japan only because EV > 0 at the available price.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability makes Germany a heavy favorite (≈82%)
- • Davis Cup tie outcomes can be volatile due to roster choices and doubles
- • Potential home/venue advantage and lack of concrete roster/injury info create upside for underdog