Jaqueline Adina Cristian vs Emma Raducanu
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home underdog Jaqueline Adina Cristian at 3.52; our model estimates a ~35% win chance, producing ~+23% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market overprices Raducanu at 1.321 (implied ~75.7%) given both players' weak records
- • Cristian at 3.52 requires only ~28.4% true probability to be profitable — we estimate higher
Pros
- + Clear mathematical edge at current odds (EV positive)
- + Both players' recent form on hard courts is similar, reducing the favorite's edge
Cons
- - Player profiles are limited and identical in the research, increasing model uncertainty
- - Lack of H2H, fitness, or deeper match-level stats in provided data increases risk
Details
We view the current market (Away 1.321 implied ~75.7%) as overstating Emma Raducanu's win probability given the research showing both players with similar, weak recent records (10-21) on hard courts and no clear injury or head-to-head edge for Raducanu. At the offered home price of 3.52 (implied 28.4%), Jaqueline Adina Cristian needs only ~28.4% true chance to be +EV. We estimate Cristian's true win probability at ~35% based on comparable recent form on hard surfaces and the likelihood that the market is favoring Raducanu more on name/recency than on objective form. Using p=0.35 yields EV = 0.35*3.52 - 1 = +0.232 (23.2% ROI) — enough value to back Cristian at these prices.
Key factors
- • Bookmaker price implies Raducanu ~75.7% — we consider this overstated given available form data
- • Both players show similar weak recent records (10-21) on hard courts in the provided profiles
- • No injury or H2H information provided to justify heavy favoritism for Raducanu
- • Cristian only needs ~28.4% true chance (3.52) to be +EV; our estimate is ~35%