Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home is ~63.9%; we estimate ~68.0%
• • Experience and clearer track record on tour tilt probability toward Szajrych

Pros

• + Noticeable experience and win-rate advantage
• + Current price (1.565) exceeds the minimum fair odds implied by our probability

Cons

• - Both players show recent inconsistent results; form risk remains
• - No head-to-head data or up-to-date injury reports to further reduce uncertainty

Details

We see the market pricing Jasza Szajrych at 1.565 (implied win probability ~63.9%). Based on the provided profiles, Szajrych has considerably more match experience (119 matches, 47 wins) than Nicolo Toffanin (22 matches, 4 wins) and a substantially higher career win rate (≈39.5% vs ≈18.2%). Both players compete on clay, but Toffanin's very limited sample and poor record at M-level events suggests a meaningful quality gap in Szajrych's favor. Adjusting for experience, surface familiarity and recent results, we estimate Szajrych's true win probability at 68.0%, which is higher than the market-implied 63.9%, producing positive expected value at the current home decimal price. At our estimate the minimum fair decimal price would be ~1.471; the offered 1.565 therefore contains value. We note risk from both players' recent inconsistent form and the absence of head-to-head or updated injury data, which we factor into a conservative probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Experience and match volume: Szajrych 119 matches vs Toffanin 22 matches
• • Career win-rate gap: Szajrych ~39.5% vs Toffanin ~18.2%
• • Both play on clay, but Toffanin shows limited success at M-level events