Highlights

• • Current odds imply Gimenez is a heavy favorite (1.377) — we see less of a gap than the market implies
• • Our fair-price cut-off for Szajrych is ~2.74; current 2.85 provides cover for model uncertainty

Pros

• + Underdog price offers measurable positive EV versus our probability estimate
• + Both players' recent results are mixed, reducing the clear favoritism for Gimenez

Cons

• - Limited data and no H2H provided increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - Szajrych's overall career win rate is lower and recent results include several losses

Details

We find value backing the home player, Jasza Szajrych, at 2.85. The market prices Igor Gimenez at ~72.6% implied probability, which appears too high relative to the available evidence: career win rates show a narrower gap (Szajrych ~43% vs Gimenez ~52.5%), both have recent poor form and both play the tournament surface, and there is no clear injury or matchup information to justify such a large market edge for Gimenez. Conservatively adjusting for sample sizes and recent results, we estimate Szajrych's true win probability at 36.5%. At that probability the fair price is ~2.740; the current 2.85 offers positive expected value. We use the widely-available current moneyline (2.85) for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Gimenez (~72.6%) looks overstated relative to career-win differential
• • Both players have experience on clay/hard and recent form shows vulnerabilities for each
• • No clear injury or dominant H2H information to justify a heavy favorite; price premium likely reflects market bias