Jaume Munar vs Elmer Moeller
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small but positive value on Jaume Munar at 1.228 based on his higher-level recent activity and the lack of evidence that Moeller matches that level; expected ROI ~4.4%.
Highlights
- • Market implied probability: ~81.4%
- • Our estimated probability: 85% → positive EV (≈4.4%)
Pros
- + Clear experience and recent high-level matches for Munar
- + Current price still offers a small edge vs our probability estimate
Cons
- - Edge is modest — not large enough to absorb unexpected match volatility
- - Limited specific data on Elmer Moeller; unknown factors could reduce value
Details
The market prices Jaume Munar a strong favorite at 1.228 (implied ~81.4%). Using the provided player profile, Munar has recent high-level activity (US Open appearances) and a positive career sample, while no research details were provided for Elmer Moeller, implying a clear experience gap. We estimate Munar's true win probability higher than the market at 85%, which yields positive expected value versus the current price: EV = 0.85 * 1.228 - 1 = 0.044 (4.4% ROI). The margin is modest but meaningful given the available information; the value is driven by Munar's superior level and the absence of evidence that Moeller is an equal-caliber opponent.
Key factors
- • Munar has recent main-draw Grand Slam activity indicating higher tour level
- • No research details on Elmer Moeller — likely a lower-profile opponent
- • Book market implies ~81.4% for Munar; our estimate is ~85% giving a positive edge