Jaume Munar vs Elmer Moller
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market heavily favors Munar at 1.21 but our read of the provided profiles gives Munar ~47% chance — the current price is long on the favorite with no value, so we recommend betting none.
Highlights
- • Book market implies ~82.6% for Munar; our model estimates ~47%
- • Moller shows a higher career win percentage in the Research, so the heavy-market edge for Munar looks overstated
Pros
- + Munar is priced as a strong favorite so a win would be a straightforward result
- + Low volatility typical of matches with a clear favorite (if outcome aligns with market)
Cons
- - Price offers no value — expected ROI is strongly negative at current odds
- - Research shows Moller with a better career win rate and comparable recent form, undermining the favorite’s pricing
Details
We compare the market price (Munar 1.21 -> implied probability ~82.6%) to our assessment based on the provided player profiles. Jaume Munar's career record in the Research is 30-25 (≈54.5% win rate) while Elmer Moller is 43-28 (≈60.6% win rate), and both have recent losses at the US Open. Given the similar surface exposure and no injury information in the Research, we view Moller as at least as likely as Munar to win this match. We estimate Munar's true win probability at 47%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~2.128. At the listed price of 1.21 for Munar the expected value is strongly negative (EV = 0.47*1.21 - 1 ≈ -0.431), so there is no value on the heavy favorite. Therefore we do not recommend backing Munar at current prices.
Key factors
- • Career win rates in Research: Munar 30-25 (~54.5%) vs Moller 43-28 (~60.6%) favor Moller historically
- • Both players recorded recent losses at the US Open in the provided recent-form lines, indicating similar short-term form
- • Market-implied probability for Munar (~82.6%) is far above our estimated probability (47%), creating a large negative EV