Jaume Munar vs Holger Rune
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Jaume Munar at 2.64 based on a 40% estimated win probability, producing about a 5.6% expected return versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Current market undervalues Munar by our estimate (40% vs implied 37.9%)
- • Both players show similar short-term US Open outcomes in the provided data
Pros
- + Positive expected value at available odds (EV ≈ +5.6%)
- + Munar's season win rate suggests he is capable of an upset more often than implied
Cons
- - Edge is small — sensitive to estimation error
- - Rune's superior overall record means upset risk is real and variance is high
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to our estimate derived from the provided player profiles. The market prices Holger Rune at 1.49 (implied ~67.1%) and Jaume Munar at 2.64 (implied ~37.9%). From the Research both players have similar recent two-match US Open lines (each with a win and a loss) and both contest a mix of surfaces (clay, grass, hard). Rune has the stronger overall 2024–25 win rate (38-21 ≈ 64.4%) versus Munar (30-25 ≈ 54.5%), but the short-term results shown are roughly even and Davis Cup ties can compress edges. Given that, we estimate Munar's true chance at about 40.0% — materially above the market-implied 37.9% — which produces a small positive edge at the available 2.64 price. EV calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.40 * 2.64 - 1 = 0.056 (≈ +5.6% ROI). We therefore recommend the home side only because the current price offers positive expected value versus our estimate; we do not see Rune priced attractively enough to justify betting on the favorite.
Key factors
- • Recent short-term form in Research shows both players with mixed US Open results (1 win, 1 loss each)
- • Career 2024–25 win rates favor Rune but not overwhelmingly (Rune ~64%, Munar ~55%)
- • Market implies Munar ~37.9% while our model estimates ~40% — small value on the home dog