Highlights

• • Market price implies Carreno ~74.4% win probability
• • Our conservative true probability (72.0%) produces a small negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Conservative estimate accounts for Javier's clay/Seville familiarity
• + Avoids taking a thin positive that relies on missing opponent data

Cons

• - If additional reliable data on Carreno Busta’s form were available, our estimate might change
• - Small margin between market and our probability means edges could flip with new info or better odds

Details

We compare the market price (Pablo Carreno Busta 1.344 decimal, implied ~74.4%) with a conservative, research-driven estimate of the true win probability. The available research only provides detail on Javier Barranco Cosano: a long career, positive overall record, and recent activity in the Seville clay event (suggesting comfort on surface and local form). We lack any sourced data on Carreno Busta within the provided research, so we do not inflate his true probability beyond what the market implies. Allowing for Javier's clay form and home-event familiarity, we conservatively estimate Carreno Busta's true win probability at 72.0%, which is below the market-implied 74.4%. At the quoted price of 1.344 this yields a small negative expectation (EV ≈ -0.032), so no value exists at current prices. If you can obtain a price of at least 1.389 or higher on Carreno Busta, that would meet our minimum requirement for positive expected value given our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Carreno Busta is ~74.4% at 1.344 decimal
• • Javier Barranco Cosano has demonstrated recent match activity in Seville on clay (surface advantage/home form)
• • No sourced profile or current-form data provided for Carreno Busta in research, increasing uncertainty
• • Bookmaker margin (vig) slightly inflates implied probabilities