Highlights

• • Profiles are effectively equivalent in the supplied data (10-21 records each).
• • Away price (2.08) is just above our minimum required odds (2.062) for value.

Pros

• + Small positive edge at available price (EV ≈ +0.88%).
• + Decision is data-driven from the provided near-parity in profiles.

Cons

• - Edge is very small and sensitive to slight changes in true-probability estimate.
• - Research lacks H2H, surface specifics for this event, and injury details — higher uncertainty.

Details

We find small value on Berfu Cengiz (away) at the quoted 2.08. The provided player profiles show virtually identical records (both 10-21 over 31 matches) and the same surface exposure, so there is no clear performance edge for Jazmin Ortenzi beyond the bookmaker pricing. The market prices Jazmin at 1.75 (implied ~57.1%) while Berfu is 2.08 (implied ~48.1%). Given the near-parity in profiles and lack of injury or H2H information in the research, we estimate Berfu's true win probability around 48.5% — lower than the home-implied probability but slightly higher than the away-implied price requires. At our estimate, the away price of 2.08 yields a small positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.88% per unit). This is a thin edge driven by market favoritism toward the home player despite near-equal credentials; it is a low-margin, higher-uncertainty value bet rather than a strong recommendation.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical win-loss records and surface experience
• • No injury or form divergence reported in the provided research
• • Book market favors home (1.75) creating a small value opportunity on the away price (2.08)