Highlights

• • Implied away probability at 4.05 is ~24.7%
• • We estimate the away win probability at 35%, producing ~0.42 EV per unit staked

Pros

• + Large pricing gap between market and our conservative probability estimate
• + No research-based reasons (injury, surface mismatch, lopsided form) to support heavy favoritism for the home player

Cons

• - Research is sparse and symmetric — our probability relies on assuming no hidden ranking/seed advantage
• - If there are unreported factors (e.g., local seeding, recent practice/fitness, or head-to-head) the edge could disappear

Details

We find clear value backing the away player (Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez) because the market prices her at 4.05 (implied win probability ~24.7%) while the available data shows near-identical career records and surface experience between the two players. There are no injury indications or strong form differentials in the research to justify an 80%+ market probability for the home player; given symmetric profiles we assign a significantly higher true chance to the underdog. Comparing our estimated true probability (35%) to the market's implied probability (24.7%) produces a large positive edge at the current price.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface history (clay and hard) in the research
• • No injury reports, form differentials or H2H information present to justify the large market favoritism
• • Market-implied probability for the away player (~24.7%) is substantially below our conservative true probability estimate (35%)