Highlights

• • Market implies ~86% for Ortenzi, which is unsupported by the comparable records
• • Required odds for value on Ortenzi are ~1.923, well above the offered 1.167

Pros

• + Clear market favorite means the match outcome could be straightforward (less variance) if the market is correct
• + Both players' match histories are documented, reducing unknowns like sudden form swings or recent injuries

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.167) offers a large negative EV against our probability estimate
• - Research does not provide any convincing edge or differentiator to justify backing the heavy favorite

Details

We compare the market price (Jazmin Ortenzi 1.167 => implied 85.7%) to the on-record data: both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience (clay and hard) with no injury or H2H information provided. The market is pricing an extremely large gap that the available data does not support. Our conservative estimated win probability for Ortenzi is ~52%, which requires ~1.923 decimal odds to be +EV; the current 1.167 is far too short, giving a strongly negative expected value. Therefore we decline to back either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical records (10-21) and similar surface history (clay and hard)
• • No injuries, H2H, or other differentiators provided to justify a large market gap
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (85.7%) is far above what on-data comparison supports