Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.235) ≈ 81%, far above our 52% estimate
• • Players' records and recent form in the research do not justify the heavy favorite pricing

Pros

• + Market price is widely available and shows a clear favorite, so any genuine edge would be actionable
• + If additional information (injury/news) emerges favoring one player, odds could re-align and create value

Cons

• - Quoted favorite price (1.235) produces a strongly negative EV given our modeled win probability
• - Research lacks H2H, detailed match stats, or injury reports that could justify the market skew

Details

We find no value on the heavy favorite Jazmin Ortenzi at 1.235. The research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on Clay/Hard with no clear surface or injury advantage and no H2H data to separate them. The market-implied probability for Ortenzi at 1.235 is ~81%, which is implausibly high given the parity shown in the available profiles. We estimate a much lower true win probability for Ortenzi and thus a negative expected value at the quoted price; therefore we recommend taking no side unless the price moves to at least the breakeven threshold implied by our probability.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical aggregate records (10-21) and similar recent results in the provided data
• • No clear surface or injury advantage is reported; both have experience on Clay and Hard
• • Market strongly favors home at ~81% implied, which is inconsistent with the parity in available profiles