Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Damien: ~61.4%
• • Our estimate: 63.0% -> slight value at current odds

Pros

• + Damien has a better season record and more matches, suggesting greater consistency
• + Current market price is narrowly beatable by our probability model

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to estimation error
• - Limited recent-match detail and no H2H reduces confidence

Details

We see Damien Wenger as the more likely winner based on the provided profiles: 18-12 career record versus Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg's 12-13 and both players having clay experience. The market prices Damien at decimal 1.629 (implied 61.4%). Given Damien's better win-loss consistency and slightly stronger recent form in the provided match logs, we estimate his true win probability a touch above the market at 63.0%, implying value at the current price. There is no injury information or H2H available to materially change that view, but the edge is modest and driven largely by overall record and consistency across surfaces in the supplied data.

Key factors

• • Damien Wenger has a stronger overall win-loss record (18-12) versus Jeffrey (12-13)
• • Both players have clay experience, but Damien shows more consistent results in provided logs
• • No injury or head-to-head information available, increasing uncertainty despite the small edge