Jelena Cvijanovic vs Monique Barry
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given the identical profiles and no contrary evidence, the heavy favorite price looks overvalued; Jelena Cvijanovic at 6.09 represents significant value versus our ~50% true-win estimate, though market reasons may exist.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability (1.157) ~86% vs our estimate ~50%
- • Required fair odds for our model are 2.00; current 6.09 offers large margin
Pros
- + Large pricing discrepancy creates high theoretical ROI on the underdog
- + No documented form or injury advantage for the favorite in provided research
Cons
- - Market may be reflecting unreported factors (fitness, late withdrawals, insider info) not present in research
- - High variance outcome — upsets in tennis are plausible and this is a single-match bet
Details
We see a severe market skew: the away price (1.157) implies ~86.4% win probability while the home price (6.09) implies ~16.4%. The supplied player profiles show essentially identical short career records (both 10-21 across similar surfaces) and no injury, surface, or H2H information that would justify such a lopsided market gap. Given parity in available data, we estimate the true win chance for the underdog (Jelena Cvijanovic) at 50%. At that estimated probability, the home decimal price of 6.09 is a large value edge versus the market-implied probability. Minimum fair odds for our estimate are 2.000; the offered 6.09 is far higher, producing a strongly positive expected return. We flag this as a high-risk situation because the market may be reflecting unreported information or a pricing error, but on the evidence provided the home side represents clear value.
Key factors
- • Both players show virtually identical records and recent results in the provided data
- • Bookmaker-implied probabilities are extremely skewed (away ~86%) with no documented justification
- • No injuries, surface disadvantages, or H2H data in research to support the heavy favorite