Jelena Ostapenko vs Marina Stakusic

Highlights

• • Ostapenko heavily favored at 1.29 (77.5% implied)
• • Our estimate (68%) implies required odds ≈ 1.471 for value

Pros

• + Ostapenko has higher profile and experience which could tilt close matches
• + Match on hard court where both have recent matches

Cons

• - Both players are in poor recent form (multiple Challenger losses)
• - Market price is too short to offer positive EV based on our probability estimate

Details

We compare the market price (Ostapenko 1.29 => 77.5% implied) to our assessment of the match. Both players show nearly identical 10-21 records and recent Challenger losses on hard courts, so form and surface history do not create a large gap. Ostapenko carries greater name and experience, which we value, but recent results suggest she is not as dominant as the market implies. We estimate Ostapenko's true win probability at ~68%; at the offered 1.29 this produces a negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.123 per unit). To be profitable we would need at least ~1.471 on Ostapenko. Given the lack of evidence that her win chance exceeds the market-implied 77.5%, there is no value on either side at current prices, so we recommend taking no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical 10-21 records and recent Challenger losses
• • Surface shows both have recent hard-court activity—no clear surface edge
• • Market heavily favors Ostapenko (implied ~77.5%) while recent form reduces confidence in that pricing