Jelena Ostapenko vs Marina Stakusic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Marina Stakusic at 3.85: the market underprices her relative to Ostapenko given the identical records and similar surface history presented in the research.
Highlights
- • Book odds imply Stakusic ~26% chance; our estimate is ~35%
- • Required odds to break even on our estimate are ~2.857; current is 3.85
Pros
- + Strong positive EV at current prices (approx +34.8% ROI per unit)
- + Decision grounded on identical records and similar surface profiles from supplied data
Cons
- - Research supplied is limited (no H2H, limited injury/status details), increasing uncertainty
- - If Ostapenko has unreported factors (fitness, late form improvement), value could evaporate
Details
The market prices Ostapenko as a heavy favorite at 1.26 (implied ~79.4%), but the provided profiles show both players with identical overall records (10-21) across the same surfaces (clay, hard) and recent results dominated by losses. There is no evidence in the supplied research of a clear form or surface advantage for Ostapenko that justifies such a large gap. A conservative true probability for Stakusic of 35% (vs the market-implied 25.97%) produces positive value at the available decimal price of 3.85. In short: the book is overestimating Ostapenko relative to the similar head-to-head indicators in the research, creating value on the away moneyline.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical overall records in the provided data (10-21) and have primarily played the same surfaces
- • Recent match entries for both players show losses in Challenger events — Ostapenko is not showing dominant recent form in the research
- • Current market-implied probability for the away player (25.97%) is materially lower than our conservative estimated true probability (35%)