Jelena Cvijanovic vs Summer Hupfeld
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a bet — the market heavily overprices the home player relative to her documented form and recent results, producing a large negative EV.
Highlights
- • Market implied probability (1.21) is ~82.6%; our estimate ~40%
- • Required odds for value on Cvijanovic are ~2.50; current price is far below
Pros
- + Cvijanovic has Challenger-level experience and some recent match activity
- + Match is on hard courts, a surface she has played recently
Cons
- - Poor overall win-loss record (10-21) and recent straight losses on hard
- - No information on opponent makes the market edge impossible to verify
Details
We estimate Jelena Cvijanovic's true win probability at about 40% based on a 10-21 season record and recent straight losses on hard courts, while the market prices her at 1.21 (implied ~82.6%). That implied probability is far higher than our assessment, producing a strongly negative expected value (EV = 0.40 * 1.21 - 1 = -0.516). There is also no usable information on Summer Hupfeld in the provided research, increasing model uncertainty and making it unsafe to back either player at the current prices. To be profitable on Cvijanovic we'd need at least ~2.50 decimal odds given our probability estimate; at the current 1.21 there is no value.
Key factors
- • Cvijanovic season record 10-21 indicates below-average form overall
- • Recent hard-court losses (early September) suggest poor current form on surface
- • Bookmaker prices imply ~82.6% for home which is inconsistent with provided performance data
- • No data provided on Summer Hupfeld increases variance and uncertainty