Jelena Ostapenko vs Marina Stakusic

Highlights

• • Market implies ~78.9% for Ostapenko, which is unsupported by the matched records and recent losses in the research
• • Required price for value at our estimate is ≥1.667 (current 1.268 is too short)

Pros

• + Ostapenko is the market favorite and would be the logical pick if outside information supported a much higher true probability
• + Short markets like this can move; if odds drift toward 1.70+ value would appear

Cons

• - Research shows both players with identical recent records and several recent losses — little to justify the heavy market favoritism
• - Negative expected value at current publicly available odds (EV ≈ -0.239)

Details

The market price (Ostapenko 1.268 -> implied 78.9%) appears to heavily favor the home player despite our research showing almost identical recent records and poor form for both players (each 10-21, recent losses). We estimate Ostapenko's true win probability materially lower than the market-implied 78.9% because the available data does not support such a large gap: both players have the same career span, similar surface history (hard/clay) and multiple recent losses in challengers. Using a conservative true probability of 60.0% for Ostapenko, the current odds of 1.268 produce a negative expected value (EV = 0.60 * 1.268 - 1 = -0.239). To be profitable we would need at least 1.667 in decimal odds for the implied 60% win probability. Given the lack of any research evidence justifying the market favoritism and the negative EV at current prices, we do not recommend betting either side.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical published records (10-21) and similar recent form in the supplied research
• • Market-implied probability for Ostapenko (78.9%) is much higher than our estimated true probability (60%)
• • Surface/venue data in research shows play on hard is common to both and recent results are poor for both, offering no clear edge