Jelena Ostapenko vs Marina Stakusic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices Ostapenko far above what the supplied performance data supports; no value exists at the current 1.26 price.
Highlights
- • Ostapenko heavy market favorite (1.26) but recent results in the research are weak
- • At our estimated 62% true probability the favorite price yields negative EV
Pros
- + Ostapenko has greater name recognition and historical upside which may justify favoritism in markets
- + Match is on hard courts, a surface both players have recently played
Cons
- - Provided recent form shows losses for both players; no clear advantage in the data
- - Bookmaker implied probability (~79%) significantly exceeds our estimated true probability, producing negative EV
Details
We see the market prices Jelena Ostapenko as a heavy favorite (1.26, implied ~79.4%). Our read of the provided match data shows both players with nearly identical 2024–2025 records (10-21) and recent Challenger losses on hard courts, with no injury information or clear surface edge. While Ostapenko carries greater name recognition, the form and head-to-head context provided do not justify a true win probability near 80%. We estimate Ostapenko's true chance closer to ~62%, which makes the current favorite price overpriced by the market (negative EV). At our estimate, there is no positive expected value on either side at the quoted prices, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical 2024–2025 records (10-21) in the provided data
- • Recent form: both coming off Challenger-level losses on hard courts — no clear form edge
- • Market implies ~79.4% for Ostapenko, which exceeds a reasonable estimate based on the supplied profiles