Highlights

• • Away is a heavy market favorite at 1.213 (implied ~82.4%)
• • Home would need >24.6% true chance to be +EV; we estimate ~20%

Pros

• + If you believe the limited data underestimates an upset chance, the home line can be tempting
• + Both players show extensive match experience, so unexpected outcomes are possible

Cons

• - Current underdog price (4.07) is below our required 5.00 fair odds for a 20% win chance
• - No research evidence of injury, surface advantage, or form swing that would significantly raise the underdog's probability

Details

We compared the quoted prices to our assessment and find no value on either side. The away player is a heavy favorite at 1.213 (implied win probability ~82.4%), which would require us to believe she has >82% chance to win to be +EV; the home underdog (4.07, implied ~24.6%) would need >24.6% true chance to be +EV. The provided profiles show long careers and mixed recent results for both players but no clear advantage, injuries, or surface edge that would justify moving the home probability above the 24.6% threshold. We estimate Jenna Defalco has roughly a 20% chance here, making the available 4.07 price negative EV.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Gabriela Knutson (short favorite at 1.213)
• • Available public data shows similar long careers and recent mixed form for both players
• • No clear surface or injury information in the research to justify a higher probability for the home player
• • Break-even threshold for betting Jenna is 4.999.. (1/0.20 = 5.0), current 4.07 is well below that