Jennifer Rosa Dourado Zimermman vs Livia Santo

Highlights

• • Market heavily favors the home player at 1.06 (implied 94.3%)
• • Our conservative true probability (92%) implies a fair price ~1.087, making the market price unprofitable

Pros

• + Clear market consensus on a heavy favorite reduces ambiguity about likely winner
• + Low variance outcome expected (favorite heavy favorite), so upset would be notable

Cons

• - Available odds are too short to offer positive expected value based on conservative estimates
• - Lack of external data (surface, injuries, form, H2H) increases uncertainty and requires conservative assumptions

Details

With no external data available we adopt conservative assumptions. The market prices Jennifer Rosa Dourado Zimermman at 1.06 (implied 94.34%) and Livia Santo at 8.50 (implied 11.76%). We estimate the home player’s true win probability at 92.0% (0.92) to allow for upset risk and uncertainty around surface, fitness, and form. At that probability the fair decimal price would be 1.087; the current price of 1.06 is too short and yields negative expected value (EV = 0.92*1.06 - 1 = -0.0248). The away price would require an estimated true probability ≥11.76% to be fair; given the lack of evidence for an upset we conservatively estimate Livia at ~8.0% (0.08) making the 8.50 price also negative EV. Therefore no value exists at the current market prices and we recommend taking no side.

Key factors

• • Current market implies an extremely heavy favorite (home 94.3% implied)
• • No external form/injury/H2H data available — we apply a conservative uncertainty margin
• • A fair price for our estimate (1.087) is longer than the available market (1.06), producing negative EV