Highlights

• • Market implies Senica ~13% chance; our estimate ~50%
• • Break-even odds for our forecast are 2.00; market offers 7.50

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between implied and estimated probabilities yields high EV
• + No research-based justification for the heavy favorite price

Cons

• - Research dataset is limited and lacks head-to-head, ranking or deeper match metrics
• - If market pricing reflects undisclosed information (fitness, late withdrawal risk), our estimate may be overly optimistic

Details

We find strong value on Alja Senica. The market makes Jennifer Ruggeri a 1.08 favourite (implied ~92.6%) despite the research showing both players have essentially identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on comparable surfaces. There are no injury notes or form indicators in the provided data that justify such a lopsided price. Treating the matchup as roughly even based on the available profiles, the implied probability for Senica at 7.5 (13.3%) is far below our estimated true chance (~50%), producing substantial positive expected value. We therefore recommend the away side only because current quoted odds (7.5) exceed the minimum fair odds implied by our estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records and similar recent results in the provided data
• • No injury or surface advantage documented in the research to justify heavy market favoritism
• • Market price for away (7.5) implies a far lower probability than our assessment, creating value