Highlights

• • Market needs to offer >2.00 for Raggi to be profitable at a 50% true chance
• • Current price 2.12 implies ~6% edge if true probability is 50%

Pros

• + Simple value on an even matchup where the underdog is priced above break-even
• + Odds are widely available and above the 2.00 threshold needed for profit at our estimate

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to the true probability estimate (small data set)
• - No H2H, detailed match stats, or injury updates to strengthen the assessment

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our estimate. The market prices Jennifer Ruggeri at 1.662 (implied ~60.1%) and Angelica Raggi at 2.12 (implied ~47.2%). Both players present nearly identical profiles: identical career records (10-21), the same surface experience (hard and clay), and matching recent form snippets with no clear injury or matchup advantage. With no H2H or differentiating data, we treat this as roughly a coin flip and estimate Angelica Raggi's true win probability at 50.0%. At the quoted away price of 2.12 this yields positive expected value: EV = 0.50 * 2.12 - 1 = 0.06 (6% ROI). The market only needs to offer odds >2.00 to justify backing Raggi at a 50% win expectation; current widespread prices at 2.12 therefore represent value. We recognize the edge is small and based on parity assumptions, so the recommendation is conditional on accepting a 50% true probability given the symmetric data.

Key factors

• • Players have near-identical records and surface experience, suggesting ~50/50 matchup
• • Market implies home fav ~60% which is higher than our parity-based estimate
• • No clear injury, form, or H2H edge to distinguish either player