Highlights

• • Market implies home 62.7% but our model ~53.5%
• • Away at 2.23 offers ~+3.7% ROI vs our probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge: offered away price exceeds our min required odds
• + Both players' similar profiles reduce risk of hidden form-based surprises

Cons

• - Very limited distinguishing data (no H2H, injury, or detailed recent-form differences provided)
• - Small EV margin; sensitive to modest changes in true-probability estimate

Details

Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar experience on clay and hard courts, providing little performance-based edge. The market prices Jennifer Ruggeri (home) at 1.595 (implied 62.7%) and Eva Marie Voracek (away) at 2.23 (implied 44.8%), showing a sizable book margin. We assign a small home advantage and estimate true win probabilities of ~53.5% for Ruggeri and ~46.5% for Voracek based on identical form and surface history. At our estimated 46.5% chance for Voracek, the fair decimal price is ~2.151; the offered 2.23 therefore contains value. EV = 0.465 * 2.23 - 1 = +0.037 (≈ +3.7% ROI), so the away price represents a positive expected-value bet given our assessment.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical win-loss records (10-21) and similar surface history, limiting informational edges
• • Market-implied probabilities show a ~7.5% overround; away price appears softer relative to our model
• • We give a small home-court edge (~3.5%) but not enough to justify the market’s heavy favoritism toward the home player