Highlights

• • Home implied probability (~70%) appears unsupported by the player data provided
• • Away at 2.60 offers a conservative estimated ROI ~19.6% given our 46% win estimate

Pros

• + Clear pricing discrepancy between market and our probability estimate
• + Conservative probability assumption still produces meaningful positive EV

Cons

• - Limited data in the provided research increases uncertainty around the true probability
• - If there is unreported local/home advantage or injury for the away player, value would evaporate

Details

We see a clear market skew: the home price 1.429 implies ~70% win probability while the away price 2.60 implies ~38.5%. The available player profiles show near-identical career records (10-22) and similar surface experience, with no clear form or injury edge for the home player. Given the lack of differentiating evidence and the home label alone driving a heavy favorite price, we judge the market is overstating the home's probability. We estimate Mathilde Lollia (away) has materially higher win probability than the market-implied 38.5%, creating value at 2.60. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 46% for the away, the fair decimal price would be ~2.174, so the offered 2.60 represents positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-22) and surface experience in the provided profiles
• • Market strongly favors home at 1.429 despite no clear evidence-based advantage
• • Recent form appears poor for both players in the provided match listings, reducing predictability
• • No head-to-head or injury information in the research to justify the short favorite