Jeremy Gschwendtner vs Daniil Stepanov

Highlights

• • Home price implies near-90% win chance which is implausible given available form data
• • At our 23% estimate, the away yields ~25% ROI at current odds (5.45)

Pros

• + Significant overlay vs implied market probability for the away
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces clear positive EV

Cons

• - Very limited/incomplete information on the away player increases model uncertainty
• - Thin markets at ITF level can move quickly and be subject to sharp local biases

Details

We find value on Daniil Stepanov (away) because the market heavily favours Jeremy Gschwendtner at 1.114 (implied win prob ~89.8%), a level we cannot support based on the available information. The only detailed data we have shows Gschwendtner with a 13-18 career record and recent losses on clay, which suggests he is far from a near-90% probability favorite. There is no profile provided for Stepanov, which increases uncertainty but also means the market may be overpricing the home due to venue or thin market liquidity. Comparing probabilities: the away price 5.45 implies a win probability of ~18.35%; we estimate Stepanov's true win probability at 23% (conservative given home advantage and data gaps). At p=0.23, the bet has positive expected value: EV = 0.23 * 5.45 - 1 = +0.2535 (≈25.35% ROI). The home would need an ~89.8% true probability to be fair at current odds, which is implausible given Gschwendtner's losing record and recent form. Therefore we recommend a value play on the away at the displayed market price.

Key factors

• • Market price for home (1.114) implies ~89.8% win probability—unlikely given home player's 13-18 record and recent losses
• • Lack of public data on the away increases uncertainty but also suggests potential market overreaction to home/local factors
• • At our conservative estimated win chance for the away (23%), current odds 5.45 offer substantial positive EV