Jeremy Gschwendtner vs George Lazarov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the home player Jeremy Gschwendtner at 2.10 — we estimate his true win probability at ~53%, producing ~11% ROI versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Home odds 2.10 imply 47.6% — our estimate 53% gives a positive edge
- • Small-sample ITF data raises variance; still clear value at current price
Pros
- + Market understates Jeremy's chance per our form-and-experience read
- + Both players are clay-experienced, so surface risk is limited
Cons
- - Limited sample sizes and sparse direct H2H means higher uncertainty
- - ITF matches are volatile; short-term form swings can reverse outcomes
Details
We see value backing Jeremy Gschwendtner (home) at 2.10. The market-implied probability at 2.10 is ~47.6%, but our assessment puts Jeremy's true win probability higher (~53%). Jeremy has a larger recent match sample (34 matches, 15-19) and shows fresher positive results in early September on clay, while George Lazarov has a smaller sample (11 matches, 4-7) and more recent losses in August on clay. Both players have clay experience so surface doesn't strongly favor the market underdog, and the bookmaker's price understates Jeremy's likely chance here. Comparing the market price to our model: 0.53 * 2.10 - 1 = +0.113 EV (11.3% ROI), so the home price offers positive expected value despite limited samples. We flag higher variance given small ITF samples and limited H2H data.
Key factors
- • Jeremy has a larger recent match sample and slightly better recent results on clay
- • George has fewer career matches and several recent defeats on clay
- • Book odds (2.10) imply ~47.6% for Jeremy, below our 53% estimate — creating value