Jeremy Gschwendtner vs Ognjen Milic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a wager: Milic looks the stronger player but the market price (1.155) is too short versus our 82% win estimate — no value.
Highlights
- • Milic: 25-10 overall and strong recent form at this tournament
- • Book market implies ~86.6% for Milic vs our ~82% estimate → negative EV
Pros
- + Milic is the clear favorite with superior clay form and match wins at this venue
- + Reaching the SF indicates consistent recent performance and momentum
Cons
- - Current odds (1.155) are too low to offer a positive expected return
- - Single-match variance and potential for an upset remain — not priced for value
Details
We estimate Ognjen Milic is the stronger clay player and in superior form (25-10 overall, recent wins at this event) while Jeremy Gschwendtner has a weaker record (15-19) and patchy recent results. The market price for Milic (decimal 1.155) implies a win probability of ~86.6%, but our assessment of his true win probability is ~82%. At that edge the current price is too short to offer value: the break-even decimal would be ~1.220 while the available 1.155 produces a negative expected return. Given the clear form and surface advantage for Milic we would back him only if the price moved to at least ~1.22 or higher; at current quotes we advise no bet.
Key factors
- • Milic has superior overall record and recent wins at this clay event
- • Gschwendtner has inferior season record and limited recent success on clay
- • Market-implied probability (≈86.6%) is higher than our assessed win chance (82%), removing value